Testing a Tree Phenology Model to Predict Cherry Flowering Time at Select Locations in the United States

The phenology of plants is sensitive to changes in temperature. During the past decades, considerable shifts in tree phenology have been reported in the temperate regions; these shifts are likely to be a response to the changing climate. Cherry trees are a good indicator of the impact of climate change on phenology because their flowering time is highly dependent on winter and early spring temperatures. The blossom of some cherry species (e.g., Prunus serrulata, Prunus x yedoensis) is celebrated with festivities in many parts of the world including the US, Japan, and Korea. For these reasons, the timing of cherry blossom engenders strong public interests and cultural attentions each year. Previously, we have shown that a thermal-time based two-step phenology model successfully predicted flowering time of Prunus serrulata throughout Korea. In this work, we calibrate the model for Prunus x yedoensis and test its applicability to predict cherry flowering dates in select locations in the US: Tidal Basin, Washington DC, and Seattle, WA. We then apply the model to predict future flowering dates in these areas based on the projected climate data up to year 2100. We discuss the implications of the model predictions and potential applications of the model.