Past and Future Climate Patterns Affecting Temperate, Sub-tropical and Tropical Horticultural Crop Production

Perennial horticultural crop production will be impacted by climate change effects on temperature, water availability, solar radiation, air pollution, and CO₂. Horticultural crop value is derived from both the quantity and the quality of the harvested product; both of which are affected by the climate.  Perennial crop production is not easily re-located as the regional climatic characteristics change due to many socio-economic factors including long re-establishment periods, nearness to processing plants, availability of labor, and accessible markets. The literature suggests that the CO₂ fertilization effect may positively contribute to yield and persist longer for perennial horticultural crops if nutrients and water availability are not limited and proper management options (e.g., spacing, pruning, thinning) are implemented to take advantage of the CO₂ effects. On the contrary, the positive CO₂ effect may be negated by the detrimental effects of extreme temperatures on phenology, carbon sinks, reproductive physiology and changes in the disease/pest complex in the agroecosystem that has not relocated to a more optimal climatic region. Case studies of two deciduous temperate fruit crops (apple and grape), two evergreen subtropical crops (citrus and coffee), and two tropical crops (banana/plantain, and cacao) are presented based on literature research to examine past changes and forecasts of the future.  Future climate change scenarios are presented to illustrate the potential impact on the existing centers of horticultural production.  We conclude that there is a lack of information on the yield and quality responses of perennial horticultural crops to elevated CO₂ and the interaction with warming temperatures in order to address the trade-off’s of future relocation vs adaptation and mitigation for these intensive and complex cropping systems.