2019 ASHS Annual Conference

Utah is undergoing rapid urban development on land that has traditionally been managed for agriculture. Development is particularly intense along the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley, where 94% of Utah’s high value irrigated land is located. According to the Your Utah, Your Future survey, 97% of Utahns envision an increase in agricultural self-sufficiency and support a local food economy. Currently, Utah produces 134% of its protein, 95% of its grain, 26% of its dairy, 3% of its fruit, and 2% of its vegetables. By 2050, it is estimated that those percentages will decrease to 70%, 51%, 14%, 1.5%, and 1.1%, respectively (Utah County Agriculture Toolbox). Areas were delineated where agricultural land has been lost to development and three cropping systems (orchards, vegetable crops, and forages) were analyzed for rate of change. Using ESRI ArcPro’s model builder, a tool was developed to select suitable growing areas where each cropping system could be transitioned based on each area’s relief, soil characteristics, and water availability. Finally, geospatial visualizations were created using ESRI Story Maps and Google Earth to communicate these results effectively. Utilizing the natural landscape’s biophysical parameters with this method will allow Utahns to visualize where specific cropping systems could be relocated in order to develop better informed land use strategies.